Chapter 7 – Opportunities & Threats

“Snapshot” of Opportunities and Threats:

Opportunities are booming in the employment broker and employee transportation sectors as population demographics and employment vacancies require the mass migration of both potential and suitable candidates.

Sector 1 – Russia and Sub-Russian Region – Taya

Opportunities:

  • Russia – Declining population will require higher export levels of gas, oils and minerals to China, Europe, India and other major industrial regions.
  • Armenia – Agriculture, construction and trade sectors.
  • Kazakhstan – Construction, domestic services and hospitality.
  • Kyrgyzstan – Bridal Services.
  • Uzbekistan – Cotton.

Threats:

  • Russia – Over 300 smaller cities and towns are in serious economic decline and the resultant migration of over 13 million people threatens the infrastructures of the other major Russian cities of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Rostov-na-Donu and Chelyabinsk.

This migration appears to be government policy as Russia is experiencing serious decline in population and a brain drain to the west. The labour markets are expected to decline rapidly to 2050 by more than 20%.

The economic gap between seriously wealthy and the average worker is unsustainable and there is a growing undercurrent that has the potential for serious dissent.

Fresh water supplies are beginning to impact on agriculture, hospitality and healthcare sectors.

Growing threat in southern regions from population creep from booming population explosion in northern China and financial costs of defence.

  • Ukraine – Although Categorized by the auditors as a war zone this sector supplies excellent computer developers and dark web opportunities for online trade.

Sector 2 – China and Hong Kong – Zhen Li

The relaxation of the one child rule will be the major factor in determining emerging economic opportunities as the booming population will impact on both local and cross-border environments.

Opportunities:

  • Booming urban population growth will be compounded by the growth in rural areas as more workers migrate to the cities. This should generate increased demands within the adult entertainment services, agriculture, bridal services (marriages), construction, domestic services and manufacturing sectors.

Threats:

  • Water – China is home to almost 20% of the world’s population but has only 7% of the world’s fresh water. Recent environmental studies estimate that the country’s reserves declined 13% between 2000 and 2009 and official figures from 2015 showed that 40% of Beijing’s surface water was polluted to the point of not being useful even for agriculture or industrial use.
  • Fake or Counterfeit Products – The scale of this within some economic sectors is endangering the profitability of genuine corporation owned companies in electronics, garments, shoes and household products.
  • Fake Spices – Including Black Pepper, Cardomom Pods, Cinnamon (Chinese Cassia), Cloves, Ground Tumeric, Nutmeg, Oregano, Root Ginger, Saffron, Star Anise, Vanilla Pods, White pepper. These products are contaminating the food chain and threatening the brands of our own corporate owned legitimate suppliers.

Sector 3 – Japan and Southeast Asia – Suzu

Over the past decade, significant structural differences in population demographics and economic development between Thailand and neighbouring countries have transformed the available workforce. As an increasingly well-educated Thai population shun poorly-paid work in unglamorous sectors— predominantly in fishing, construction, agriculture, domestic services and small manufacturing businesses —migrant workers play a critical role in filling these labour shortages. Workers, particularly from neighbouring Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.

Opportunities:

  • Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam bridal services (marriages – China and Taiwan), construction, domestic services and garment sectors.
  • Thai worker recruitment and transportation to Israel agriculture and construction sectors.
  • Rural areas of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand provide employees for domestic services in Thailand, Singapore, some of whom are the children of migrants working formally and informally in Thailand. bridal services (marriages), construction, domestic services and manufacturing sectors.

Threats:

  • Over fishing in Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea – results higher costs on maintaining long-haul vessels (facilities onboard and vessel maintenance)
  • Over fishing threatens established seafood pre-processing facilities is also evident, with reports of men, women and children from Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos working excessive hours in oppressive and abusive conditions.

Sector 4 – Italy – Sabrina

The EU Open Border Policy instigated by The German Government enables a tidal wave of migrants from North Africa and Turkey to flood through Eastern and Southern Europe. Italy assists the migrants so that they move northwards to France, Austria, Germany and the Northern Countries.

Opportunities:

  • Italexit and exit from the Euro would enable the Italian economy to devalue the currency and be more competitive.

Threats:

  • Italy has an aging and shrinking population reducing the demand for agricultural and manufactured products.
  • A possible Italexit would have catastrophic impacts on Durum wheat, olive oil and vegetable production as EU subsidies would be removed. Established markets would be seriously damaged as prices rise and access to those markets is less accessible.

Sector 5 – USA – Susanna

The development of the America First program may see the revival of USA based heavy industries, manufacturing, logging and agriculture.

Opportunities:

  • Budget cutbacks in policing, defence, drug enforcement and other government agencies are enabling the growth of copyright infringement, fake and counterfeit products.
  • Fake Imitation Foods Crab: Crab in sushi ingredients – Imitation crab is made by pulverizing white fish and binding it with egg whites, wheat starch and soy.
  • Tuna: A study by Oceana found that 94% of tuna used in sushi in New York City restaurants wasn’t tuna but a type of fish called escolar.
  • This is just the tip of the iceberg as fake products include: Maple Syrup, Olive Oil, Powdered Instant Coffee, Rice, Tea and Wasabi.

Threats:

  • America First threatens employment sectors across Mexico including agriculture, clothing, domestic services and motor vehicles.
  • Protectionism will also threaten industrial scale faking and counterfeiting of products which are transported along with the legitimate imported products from Brazil, China, India, Korea and others.

Sector 6 – UK and Middle East – Victoria

Brexit will change the employment landscape of the UK as it begins to control immigration and EU manufacturing and services provision which has been distorted for the benefit of Germany

Opportunities:

  • UK based contracts “competitive tendering” on construction, engineering programs, healthcare and manufacturing will no longer have to be offered across the EU and this will give back UK based companies control of their own markets.
  • Access to fishing rights of UK waters is due to be terminated and should in theory benefit the UK fishing fleets and fish processing plants.
  • Agriculture has to be modernised with automation and robotics programs as cheap labour may not be available from Eastern Europe.

Threats:

The instability of the Middle East as follows:

  • Israel has a serious agricultural problem with rapidly declining water resources and dependence on workers from Thailand 95%.
  • Lebanon has an influx of over 1m Syrian refugees who provide the labour in agriculture. Political stability is under stress as 25% of population is now classified as refugees.
  • Qatar has a conflict with all the neighbouring states and has the world cup in 2022 which will see the completion of major construction program and at least 30k workers being repatriated.
  • Saudi Arabia has internal ruling conflict, serious decline in oil revenues and possible escalation of conflict with Iran to the north.
  • Yemen is facing total destruction by the forces of Saudi Arabia.

Sector 7 – Germany – Tamara

Germany shares borders with nine countries: Denmark, Poland, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. (‎3,714kms – 2,307miles).

Germany had systematically destroyed most or nearly all competing economies along the whole length borders with its neighbours over a twenty-year period. While other EU countries introduced and implemented minimum wage policies and laws, Germany did not, this was a political and military decision combined with the sole intention of destroying economic competition along its borders.

Germany’s blanket minimum wage was introduced in January 2015 and was seen as an important achievement for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the junior partner in Angela Merkel’s last coalition government. It is policed by the financial control agency (FKS), under the aegis of the customs office in the Finance Ministry. Although the minimum wage was introduced 2015 employers used a variety of tricks to avoid payment. In 2016 approximately 2.7 million people in Germany – 9.8 percent of the entire workforce – worked for less than the minimum wage.

Germany has many mounting issues that have not impacted fully on the wider economy:

  • Brexit and other possible EU breakaways
  • An aging and declining population
  • Decline of the mittalstand companies as they are not being handed down to next generation
  • Emissions scandals and cartel group among German car makers
  • Trade gap with USA with products subsidised through Euro financing

Other Global Threats Include:

Loneliness (Zodiac Program):

The human epidemic sweeping Europe, USA, Japan, Korea, Australia & New Zealand.

Saffron:

An exotic spice, worth almost as much as gold, no wonder there is more cheating going on in saffron than almost any other product. Saffron is the most expensive agricultural product in the world – high quality saffron costs round 15-20 € per gram, the price of 25 kg of wheat flour at the same supermarket.

After years hampered by American sanctions, Iran which supplies around 90% of the world’s saffron, provided partnerships that enables sales channels directly to western customers.

Global Action Groups:

Polaris Project, Washington, DC USA:

Polaris is a leader in the global fight to eradicate modern slavery. Named after the North Star that guided slaves to freedom in the U.S., Polaris systemically disrupts the human trafficking networks that rob human beings of their lives and their freedom. Our comprehensive model puts victims at the center of what we do – helping survivors restore their freedom, preventing more victims, and leveraging data and technology to pursue traffickers wherever they operate.

St. Mary’s University, Twickenham, London UK:

The Centre for the Study of Modern Slavery (CSMS) at St Mary’s University is engaged in independent research to provide evidence that informs policy responses to modern slavery and human trafficking both in the UK and internationally.

Walk Free Foundation (GSI):

The Global Slavery Index provides a map, country by country, of the estimated prevalence of modern slavery, together with information about the steps each government has taken to respond to this issue. This information allows an objective comparison and assessment of both the problem and adequacy of the response in 167 countries.

Modern Slavery Research Project, Loyola University, New Orleans, LA USA:

The Modern Slavery Research Project at Loyola University New Orleans is comprised of a team of researchers and scholars committed to stopping human trafficking in all its forms. Be it through our educational initiatives, our research reports, or our training programs for first responders and other professionals, you can be assured that your donations are vital and necessary to these varied efforts to stop this global injustice.

Amnesty International (example):

Around the world millions of people are victims of modern slavery. The complexity of today’s global supply chains means that consumers are often unknowingly contributing to the exploitation of others. Modern slavery is therefore an urgent challenge, which is why Amnesty International worked to help bring about the transparency in supply chain provisions under the UK Modern Slavery Act 2015. The Act requires organizations doing business in the UK with a total turnover of £36m or more to report on the steps that they are taking to ensure that modern slavery is not taking place in their global supply chains.

Supporting Documentation:

Note: This is only a “snapshot” and a power-point presentation with full supporting data on the expanded details of all evaluated and analysed opportunities and threats is provided within the appendices within the information packages.